When the by elections were called 'Tri-elections', I laughed. What are the chances of 2 elections at constituencies called 'Bukit' with the other called 'Batang'.
But I knew straight away that it was gonna be a 'Bukit' to climb for Pakatan. For UMNO will pump in Millions of Ringgit during by-elections. It will difficult for the people to reject the seduction of so much money invested during the by-election.
Eventually, the 'Stick' in Sarawak stuck to old guard, but Pakatan took both 'Hill' seats in Peninsular Malaysia. The Sarawak result was more or less expected. Anwar Ibrahim may have made comments that the Batang Ai seat was gonna be Pakatan's foray into Sarawak, but Sarawak is more or less controlled by their Chief Minister.
But the Bukit Selambau was difficult. With so many Independents, who were suspiciously connected to BN, the Independents were expected to steal some votes away from Pakatan. But Pakatan still won.
Figure this :-
1. Elections were held on a weekday, on a Tuesday some more; where it is difficult for people to take leave. If it is on Monday, people may take leave to go back and vote. But despite without the KL people (returning to the 2 Bukits) who would likely vote for Pakatan, BN still lost.
2. Elections were held AFTER UMNO election. So UMNO went into the 3 elections all fired up, and ready to fight, but they still lost.
3. We got a new PM, and normally the new PM is given a huge mandate by the people to give the new PM a chance. Mahathir got it in 1982. Pak Lah got it in 2004. But Najib started with 2 defeats. Despite all his effort to visit the people in PS boutique, Kerinchi and Brickfield; he still lost.
4. Millions were pumped in, yet BN lost.
5. 13 ISA detainees were released, and the 2 opposition papers were allowed to publish again, Najib's way of showing he 'cares', but he still lost.
6. Despite their 'trump card' Mahathir campaigning for BN, they still lost. Actually Mahathir and for that matter Samy Vellu are massive liabilities for BN, but never mind lah. So long as these people are in BN, BN will not win.
We can analyze till the cow come home on why BN or more importantly, UMNO lost; but the fact is very simple - people just dont trust BN (Particularly UMNO) anymore.
Najib, hope you read my letter in my earlier posting.
To Pakatan - Congrats. Dont worry too much about Batang Ai. But let me remind you, Pakatan, dont let the people down, for if you do, the people wont vote for you too. Maybe a 3rd force will emerge from all these, one day. A 3rd force led by new people untarnished by their UMNO past, but that issue is for another posting, at another time :)